Season 7 - Week 4

Statistical Analysis week this week - first up an adjusted performance ratio - the percentage is an adjusted return on investment. Stat 1.

David Rosser

paul kinsella 34%
Richard Ingham 27%
Nick Kelly 26%
Pete Finch 20%
Dave Willshire 20%
Ross Jones 19%
Martin Malone 18%
Roy Hanvey 16%
tim lines 16%
Gary Lewis 15%
Craig Lowe 14%
Jake Jones 12%
Andrew Jones 11%
David Lloyd 8%
Simon Gurd 8%
Matthew Gibbons 7%
Andrew Wickett 6%
Rob Noyce 6%
Jamie Jones 5%
Nick Lines 4%
Darren Clare 3%
Matt Haywood 0%
John Fields -1%
Tony Southworth -1%
Matt Bailey -4%
Steven Rodgers -4%
Tim Hughes -5%
Trevor Gibbons -5%
Joel Wrigley -5%
Matt Britcliffe -5%
Barry Firth -6%
Sohail Virdi -6%
Simon Callan -6%
Jonathan Stapleton -7%
Paul Hickey -7%
Julia Ingham -8%
Paul Shakespeare -8%
David Pilkington -8%
Chris Cornwall -8%
Jimmy Smith -9%
Ben Gould -10%
Jonathan Dunk -10%
Daniel Lewis -10%
Chris Roberts -12%
Paul Drury -13%
Nik Simms -13%
Ben Drury -13%
James Holland -16%
Paul Chadbourne -18%
Ian Booth -21%
Steve Reeve -26%

That is an adjusted performance ratio, based on the fact that the bookies should win every week, so the longer you have been playing the more you should have lost, this is the real indicator of how good/bad a player you really are.  David Rosser is still the best however you cut it though!

Stat 2. Away winners rule this week, we had 14/19 away picks come in - 1/3 draws and only 20/36 homes.  Away pickers won £11.34, Draw pickers £0.50 and home pickers lost £2.84

Stat 3. We have one player in each league with a 100% record, Gurd, Smith, Finch, Kinsella and Firth are having blinders!  Only Bailey, Lewis and Wrigley have yet to pick a winner.

Stat 4. The Dean Holdsworth league had a 100% record this week, 6/6 the first time a league has ever achieved such a feat.

Anyway back to the league, Simon Gurd climbs to the top with a startling draw pick in the West Brom v Cardiff game.  Erstwhile leaders Rosser and Noyce both slipped up, allowing Kinsella, Ingham and Kelly to sneak into the top 4.  The three 100% losers are bottom of the overall league.

Pele league is a tight affair with the top 5 very much in the race, the bottom three are separated by a mere 28p, but tellingly are £2.11 adrift of (gulp) Gibbons in 7th.

A remarkably similar Maradona league, where the top 6 are in the hunt, the bottom three are locked together, but adrift of Chadbourne in 7th

The Lineker league is also tight, but is unique in having no runaway leader, with Dunk having his predicted slump, but remaining top due to other people's incompetence.  Wrigley is marooned at the bottom, but the others are festooned sporadically between incompetence and vague competence, leading to an open and exciting league.

The Dickov league has an impressive 7 people in positive figures, with Kinsella leading the way.  Hughes' elongated stay in Division 4 (having been thwarted in successive seasons on the last day) may well come to an end, but sadly the other way.  Bailey is over £4 from safety and looks in deep trouble, but the others have everything to fight against and fight for.

With £1.38 separating the top 6 in the Lee league, an exciting season looks set, Fields has been caught by Callan and Booth and 100% Firth are closing fast.  A big winner for Simms has pulled him out of trouble, for now, with the influx of new players, Hickey, Ingham and Lewis face the humiliation of relegation into the 6th division of picking.


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